What are local and regional elections were different from what we knew long ago, and not only for the entry into the regional political landscape of Asturias Forum. Now, the dull election posters pasted on the PP-ahead "by mistake" in some autonomous regions and municipalities a few hours yet again violating the electoral law, which everyone has to ride roughshod for weeks, has been overshadowed by the CIS poll upfront yesterday and that, apart from some small anomaly, which begins to qualify for days "trend" more or less reliable results that could shed the polls the next day 22.
The survey published yesterday, on a large sample and more accurate than those of previous consultations, offer guidelines and, although they are still that, guidelines, points and paths that could run the future of the Principality deAsturias.
Besides the remedial effects that might apply to a nomal data, in the office of the Centre for Sociological Research, there are two significant facts to consider when assessing their numbers. On the one hand, the chosen period, which ends before the announcement of Prime Minister of his intention not to become socialist electoral lineup next year, experts say that after this official statement traced PSOE slight differences (between ten and twelve points unfavorable with respect to Rajoy's PP), while others opinion polls show that after an initial rise time, things are back to where they were before the formal hearing-Zapatero and, secondly, the 'forgotten' to incorporate the latter study the valuation and the level of knowledge of the 'new' candidate, former Deputy Prime Minister Francisco Alvarez-Cascos.
Apart from the polls, more or less reliable, the most conservative turn to the very legitimate argument that the only survey of voting is May 22, "the reality is that a little over hour and a half formally opened the election campaign and is in the hands of political forces converge on it to do its part all the elements in their power to transform those results into other more beneficial for everyone.
should be noted, at the outset that the long pre-campaign-almost as much as the daily polemic interminable period from which the Quad clash between Barcelona and Madrid (Madrid or Barcelona, \u200b\u200bit does not matter), happily exhausted, we has left a residue globally negative. In terms of the problems that really concern the Asturian is little or no candidates have made major, even surprised that an 'old dog' as helmets, experienced in the technique of providing owners 'insurance' to the media, has developed its goal to go caleya caleya, but has not provided the germ of novelty that everyone expected after twelve years of brain-regional in scope. His rivals have not lagged behind and, if anything, have been used on many occasions to focus his speech on the disqualification of the 'surprise guest' at the party, which disturbs the deck consistently breaking even three terms .
In the CIS survey data shows that the right could win Asturias, though by a whisker, but with that place the PP rsultados above Asturias Forum, which complicates the possible pact between the right muy por encima de lo que pudiera haber sido un número mayor de escaños del partido de Cascos sobre el que lidera formalmente Gabino de Lorenzo. Ya comenté en otra ocasión en esta misma tribuna que, si bien veía al PP -con instrucciones precisas de Génova- permitiendo gobernar a Cascos con un apoyo mayor de los asturianos, parece más difícil pensar en el escenario contrario: Espinosa tiene más díficil , con más diputados en teoría, ser la presidenta del Principado, Nadie se imagina a FAC de 'compañero útil de viaje' y mucho menos por la personalidad de su líder. Así las cosas, y con los números del CIS, vería más fácil un gobierno en mayoría minoritaria de PSOE e IU-they will not have problems with right-Espinosa and Helmets parties in the opposition bench. That, or helmets abandons his project and goes to Madrid again. The former minister came to win it or yes, and any other than it seems difficult to grasp.
For its part, the PSOE picks wear 'Zapatero effect "and lose members, so far as to not make an absolute majority even with the help of Izquierda Unida. Focus on regional issues, as are all autonomous socialist candidate and ignore the 'national disaster' is not enough, especially in the team captained by Javier Fernandez, who, after twelve years of government his party in the community, has also intentionally left out the 'achievements' of the team of Vicente Álvarez Areces, totally ignored, out of focus, I would say a good companion during this period of elections. In short, who trusts everything to the new protagonist, despite their low level of chemistry with the public.
Anyway, this morning it's time for truth and is now in the hands of political forces that go to the polls May 22, do not forget entirely voting power of games or IDEAS UPyD - Heading to revise forecasts or surveys, the majority and minority. Since then, more than one will have to pay more energy in these two weeks to fix a framework that is not worth it-I think something in the feeling of all the main protagonists of this work, "which is derived from these data. And in any case, always remember that the polls, sometimes more than what some would like, they are wrong and that, as recalled before, the only true is that of the Asturian introduce voting at the polls in a couple of weeks long. The margins are very small and this may encourage candidates to try to snatch a vote here and another there to unbalance the apparent equilibrium of the balance, something that only comes from the undecided or those who refuse to participate in ' party '.
In my humble opinion, if the campaign runs through the paths it has followed in its preliminaries, are not expected big news. The formal landscape of this election in Asturias, is certainly novel, but so far the only thing that tends to confirm is that a united right, as in most of the autonomous territories, had been relatively comfortably and the Presidency Government of the Principality. But Asturias 'is different' and here again things are not at all clear at the moment. The CIS survey could be an incentive for some boring political-all are and everyone, and without that spirit of innovation that seemed to offer a priori this election campaign, remember that the truth, that makes the electoral law and is just starting to put all eggs in one basket and give back to the polls. It is difficult but not impossible.
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